A new national tracking poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has positioned former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the clear frontrunner to lead the New Patriotic Party (NPP) into the 2028 general elections.
The poll, which comes in the aftermath of the 2024 election, shows Dr. Bawumia leading with a commanding 48% support among respondents, with his closest contender, Kennedy Agyapong, securing 25%. Minister of Education Dr. Osei Adutwum follows with 13%, while the remaining candidates collectively garner 14% of the projected votes.
However, among confirmed NPP voters, Dr. Bawumia’s lead is even more pronounced, attracting 57% support compared to Kennedy Agyapong’s 22% and Dr. Osei Adutwum’s 11%.
These results signal strong backing for 2024 flagbearer within the party’s core supporters, setting the stage for a potentially decisive contest for the NPP’s leadership in the next election cycle.
The Global InfoAnalytics poll also sought to identify the key figures held responsible for the NPP’s loss in the 2024 general elections, which saw former President John Dramani Mahama secure a landslide victory.
According to the findings, an overwhelming 68% of respondents blamed President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo for the defeat, with 40% pointing fingers at former Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta.
Dr. Bawumia, who was the party’s 2024 flagbearer, was also implicated by 37% of respondents, while Energy Minister Dr. Matthew Opoku-Prempeh was blamed by 33%.
Other government appointees accounted for 32% of the blame, while 25% of respondents believed Members of Parliament played a role in the loss.
Interestingly, Kennedy Agyapong, who ran against Dr. Bawumia in the NPP primaries, was blamed by only 9% of those surveyed.
The survey provided insights into why John Mahama secured an emphatic victory in the 2024 election.
According to Global InfoAnlytics, Dr. Bawumia lost crucial support in the final weeks of the campaign, with only 83% of those who initially intended to vote for him following through on Election Day.
Alarmingly, 14% of his original supporters defected to Mahama at the last minute, while 3% opted for other candidates.
For President Mahama, voter retention was significantly higher, with nearly 96% of his initial supporters casting their ballots for him on Election Day.
Only 3% switched their votes to Bawumia, while 1% chose other candidates. This strong voter loyalty, combined with last-minute defections from Bawumia’s camp, likely contributed to Mahama’s decisive win.
The poll also examined the voter behaviour of smaller-party candidates. Notably, independent candidate Nana Kwame Bediako saw only 51% of his intended voters remain loyal to him, while 32% switched to Mahama and 14% moved to Bawumia.
Incidentally, Dr. Bawumia’s strong showing in the NPP flagbearer race is unsurprising, given his leadership experience and previous role as the party’s 2024 presidential candidate.
The poll results show that Dr. Bawumia still commands strong support within the NPP, despite the party’s loss in 2024, and his ability to attract 57% of NPP voters in a potential flagbearer race suggests he remains the party’s best bet for 2028.
However, Kennedy Agyapong’s 25% support indicates that he remains a formidable contender, and his popularity should not be underestimated.
The former Assin Central legislator has proven to be a grassroots favourite and a strong voice against some of the challenges that led to the NPP defeat in 2024.
As the NPP gears up for the 2028 elections, all eyes will be on how Dr. Bawumia and his potential challengers navigate internal party politics and public sentiment.
The coming years promise to be pivotal for the future of the NPP, with the leadership race already taking shape.