With less than two months to the December 2024 elections, a final field poll by Global InfoAnalytics shows John Dramani Mahama, the opposition leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), maintaining a strong lead over Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Mahama leads with 51.1% of committed voters, while Bawumia trails at 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten and Nana Kwame Bediako secure 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively, with other candidates garnering 1.3%.
In the unweighted likely voters’ model, Mahama still leads with 49.3%, compared to Bawumia’s 35.9%.
Voter apathy presents a significant challenge for the NPP, as 16% of potential non-voters are NPP supporters, while only 3% of NDC supporters fall into this category. Floating voters, as well as those declining to disclose their affiliations, make up 38% and 39%, respectively, of those who say they will not vote.
Mahama holds a 31-point lead over Bawumia among floating voters (54% to 23%) and an 18-point advantage among voters who refused to disclose their affiliations. His support among first-time voters has also increased, with a 46% to 38% lead over Bawumia, improving from a tie in July 2024.
A concerning trend for Bawumia is the drop in support among Muslim voters, a core demographic for his campaign, with his backing decreasing by nearly 4% between July and October 2024.
The poll highlights shifts among voters who supported President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. While 70% of these voters remain loyal to Bawumia, 19% have switched to Mahama, with 5% each moving to Kyeremanten and Bediako. In key regions like Greater Accra and Central, 20% and 37% of NPP’s 2020 voters now back Mahama.
Regionally, Mahama dominates in 12 regions, adding the Bono region to his column since July. He leads in Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta. Bawumia maintains control in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.
Kyeremanten and Bediako have emerged as notable contenders in the Eastern and Ashanti regions, eroding Bawumia’s dominance. In the Ashanti region, where the NPP aims for 85% of the vote, Bawumia holds 66%, Mahama 22%, Bediako 7%, and Kyeremanten 4%.
Mahama is outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies surveyed, while Bawumia trails his party’s candidates in 79 constituencies, reflecting the influence of Kyeremanten and Bediako on the ruling party’s prospects.
Key issues driving voters include the economy, jobs, and education. The economy tops the list, with 70% of respondents citing it as their primary concern, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). Economic conditions, party performance, candidate credibility, and party manifestos also influence voter decisions.
The NDC leads the NPP by a 14-point margin on manifesto favorability, with the NPP’s manifesto holding a net favorability rating of +6 points.
Discontent with the country’s direction is widespread, with 62% of voters believing Ghana is heading in the wrong direction. This view is strongest among NDC voters (88%), floating voters (74%), and supporters of other parties (76%). Conversely, 64% of NPP voters believe the country is on the right track.
President Nana Akufo-Addo’s job performance approval stands at 36%, with 59% disapproving. The government’s overall performance is rated poorly by 49% of voters, while 30% rate it positively.
As the December elections near, Mahama’s lead in key regions and demographics solidifies his position as the front-runner, while Bawumia and the NPP face increasing challenges from voter apathy and independent candidates.