In April 2020, the Economist Intelligence Unit(EIU) released its country report on Ghana and forecasted that President Akufo-Addo would win his second term bid in the general elections. Excerpts of the report had it that, “it would be difficult for the NDC under John Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy”.
True to their prediction, Nana Akufo-Addo won reelection.
In the latest of its country report on Ghana, released on April 13, 2022, the UK based research think tank has forecasted that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) ought to try to revitalise its prospects for 2024 with a fresh candidate to stand a chance of winning 2024.
As many, including the EIU have said before, it’s clearly in the interest of the NDC to revitalise its 2024 prospects with a fresh face. This is the elephant in the room – the reality of our situation. But thanks partly to the shenanigans of NDC leadership and their self-centred understanding of politics, we get the sickening spectacle of party folks insisting that Mahama is the only person fit to lead the NDC back into government.
Sadly, it appears to be a belief that has completely overtaken and drowned the entire NDC. But then, how long are we going to continue to delude ourselves that Mahama has what it takes to topple the current NPP machinery after losing to them on two consecutive occasions?
Some of us have nothing but dismay and anger for those who are driving the party in that dead-end of a direction. We can’t keep lurching from one bad decision to another with Mahama and expect to win glory.
The NPP may have lost its political goodwill and the masses disappointed in them, but it is not enough for the NDC to continue to bang its hopes on the failures of the NPP.
By any objective measure, even if a majority is appalled at many NPP policies, a highly motivated share of 40 to 45% of the electorate plus a decent chunk of the swing voter population is enough to keep them in power.
Additionally, it must never be forgotten that a future candidature of Mahamudu Bawumia (PhD) as the flag bearer of the NPP, will have electoral consequences for NDC’s chances in the 2024 elections. Even as presidential running mate, Dr Bawumia managed to appreciate the NPP votes in the northern enclaves, and in the process made Mahama unpopular amongst his own “Northern folks”.
In actual fact, for the first time in 2020, the NPP flipped the Mion seat. Hitherto, it was mathematically impossible for the NPP to win that seat. Even Cheriponi which the NDC won during the by-election in 2009 after the death of Doris Siedu has flipped to the NPP. The Damongo seat with its rich NDC history is also gone to the NPP.
To all intent and purposes, John Mahama’s own Bole Bamboi constituency is literally on a demographic timebomb that is about to go off and destroy the NDC.
And let no one underestimate the significance of NPP winning Hohoe for the first time in our electoral history. It says a lot – The NPP is basically eating into NDC’s traditional strongholds. This was a constituency that would almost have elected a caricature painted in NDC colours, and has always been a safe enough seat.
If the 2020 elections proved anything, even beyond the increasing NPP tilt of the electorate, it was that the NDC is losing leverage in the north. Indeed, the over 30% swing in a safe NDC seats as there was in 2020 means the NDC doesn’t look electable with Mahama as candidate no matter what way anyone tries to dress up the narrative.
If anything is evident here, it is that Ghana’s political demography is demonstrably on the side of the NPP. Which is why it’s extremely suicidal for the NDC to hang on with Mahama – It makes no electoral sense for the NDC to keep backing him – the man and his enablers have had two election cycles and have monumentally fluffed it. They’ve had their chance.
Forget about the justifications of the return of Mahama with the 6million plus votes propaganda. It wasn’t as if Mahama miraculously dipped his hands into his pocket, pulled out the 6million votes and dashed it to the NDC, such that the votes will automatically disappear into thin air if the party change course with him as flagbearer.
There’s a substantial chunk of the Ghanaian voter population that actually votes on party insignia and logo, in that, the NDC would have still garnered the 6million plus votes, or more even if a crude caricature of a goat was on the ticket in 2020.
It’s what it is.
The fundamental agenda of the NDC at this opportune time ought to be the same as a man fighting for his life – It’s time to roll back all this mollycoddling, anti-progressive indulgence of Mahama, and ensure that the natural evolution of the NDC continues in earnest just so the right leadership takes control of the party.
To keep indulging him right up to the next general election is a sure path to destruction.
No matter how cynical this appears to some people, let’s not make another electoral mistake of giving Mahama the benefit of the doubt, or just shrug our shoulders and say, ‘the NDC have no one other than Mahama.’
The NDC needs a leader who can inspire and create optimism that if voters vote him/her in, then things will improve. That leader is not Mahama. Indeed, the NDC’s best candidate for 2024 CANNOT be John Mahama – His candidature will most likely portend the begining of the end for the NDC.
Ultimately, the NDC needs thoroughly modernising for the 21st century not looking back to the 19th. And that means prioritising coming to power, and the need to have frank and honest conversation around an alternative to Mahama.
It’s time to bury the grubby cruddy populist view that the NDC has nobody except Mahama.
Let this sink in for a minute