A new survey conducted across all 276 constituencies in Ghana indicates that if elections were held today, neither the New Patriotic Party (NPP) nor the National Democratic Congress (NDC) would secure a one-touch victory in the December 7 general elections.
The Report projects NPP’s flagbearer, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, and NDC’s John Dramani Mahama to garner 46.3% of the total vote each, setting the stage for a potential runoff.
The survey, which polled 28,935 respondents, also suggests that smaller parties and independent candidates could be critical in determining the outcome of the election.
Kwame Bediako, popularly known as Cheddar, leader of the New Force Movement, is projected to receive 2% of the vote, particularly due to his appeal to young voters.
In total, smaller parties and independent candidates are estimated to secure 4.4% of the vote, pushing the election to a likely second round.
Kwame Bediako’s 2% projection makes him a significant figure among the smaller parties, positioning him as a potential kingmaker in the event of a runoff.
Other political figures, including Alan Kyerematen of the Movement for Change, continue to court voter support, though their impact remains uncertain.
The survey further revealed that 60% of respondents are inclined to vote based on a party’s manifesto, reflecting the importance of policy positions in the upcoming election.
Of the respondents, 48% identified themselves as politically aligned, with 92% indicating that they always vote for their preferred political party.
Support among these politically aligned voters is evenly split between the NPP and NDC, underscoring the close competition.
The report suggests that the NPP has an edge among middle-class voters due to its policies aimed at reducing the cost of living and stabilizing the national currency.
The launch of the NPP’s manifesto has reportedly restored some hope in the future of the economy, particularly among the elite class, many of whom do not view the NDC’s manifesto as presenting viable alternatives.
“The NPP’s manifesto has brought some optimism, especially among the middle class, who see the party as better positioned to address economic challenges,” the report stated. However, the survey also stressed that both parties have seen a decline in popularity compared to previous election cycles.
With the December election fast approaching, voter turnout is expected to be high. Approximately 87% of respondents indicated their readiness to vote, with 80% of them having already made up their minds about which party to support.
Among undecided voters, the regions with the highest proportions are Bono (13.7%), Oti (12.1%), and Greater Accra (10.4%).
However, a small minority (9%) indicated they would not participate in the election. Of those abstaining, 77% cited dissatisfaction with politicians as their primary reason, while 7% attributed it to the election falling on a holy Sabbath.
This sentiment was particularly strong in the Western (16.6%), Bono (15.1%), and Ahafo (11.2%) regions.
The survey, which interviewed 25,911 respondents, reflected the gender distribution of the national voter population, with 49% of respondents being male and 51% female.
A large proportion of respondents were engaged in farming (26.8%) and trading (26.4%), with 31.7% earning less than GH¢500 per month.
In terms of religious affiliation, the respondents were predominantly Protestant (23%), followed by Muslims (20.2%), Catholics (14.2%), and Charismatics (11%).
While 80% of respondents participated in the 2016 election and 87% in 2020, the survey suggests a drop in NPP popularity ahead of the 2024 elections, pointing to a more competitive race than in previous years.
With neither the NPP nor the NDC able to secure a clear lead, the December 7 election could result in a runoff for the first time in over a decade.
As smaller parties and independent candidates gain attention, their influence could prove pivotal in the final outcome.
The report concludes that the NPP may have a slight edge in the runoff due to its appeal to the middle class and positive reception to its manifesto, but the election remains highly unpredictable.