The three leading aspirants in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary have equal chances of winning the November 4 general conference if they have strong grassroots connections.
According to Associate Professor of Statistics/Director of Research and Innovation Kumasi Technical University (KsTU), Prof. Smart A. Sarpong, regardless of the outcome of the Super Delegates elections what they require is more grassroots engagement relative to their performance in the August 26 conference.
Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia picked a landslide victory at the super delegates’ conference garnering 629 votes representing 68.15%. He was followed at a distance by Assin Central Member of Parliament, Kenney Agyapong who polled 132 votes representing 14.30% while former Minister for Trade and Industry, Alan Kyerematen, polled 95 votes representing 10.29%
However, in a review of the special delegates’ conference, Prof. Smart Sarpong cautions that all these aspirants could snatch victory with some work on grassroots voters.
According to him, for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia to win the November 4 elections, each of his 629 special delegates must translate their love for him into mobilizing up to 301 members to vote for him.
Kennedy Agyapong, on the other hand, will require each of his 132 super delegates to mobilize up to 1,434 votes for him to win the November 4 elections.
And for Alan Kyerematen to win on November 4, each of his 95 super delegates must translate their love for him into mobilizing up to 1,992 members to vote for him.
“Overall, Dr. Mahamudu Batumia has up to 92.0% chance of winning the November 4 elections followed by Mr. Ken Ohene Agyapong (61.5% chance of winning) and Mr. Alan Kyerematen (46.6% chance of winning).
“Relationship with grassroots, leadership (potential leadership) style, as well as policies and programs for NPP and Ghana, shall constitute the key individual-level factors to influence voter decision,” the review states.
Prof. Smart A. Sarpong concluded that the most unifier, the most visible and the most potential candidate to bring more votes in the 2024 election will also constitute the key party factors to influence delegates’ decisions.