A poll conducted by Outcomes International suggests that Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential candidate, is set to win the 2024 presidential election by a narrow margin.
According to the poll, Bawumia is projected to secure 49.4% of the vote, with his closest rival, former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), trailing closely with 45.1%.
The poll, conducted between August and September 2024, interviewed 65,500 voters across Ghana’s 16 regions. The findings indicate that Bawumia is likely to win in 11 of the 16 regions, while Mahama is expected to carry the remaining five.
The poll also highlights the competitive nature of the December 2024 presidential election, which has been described as a two-horse race between Bawumia and Mahama.
While Bawumia holds a slight edge, the 5.2% of undecided voters could be pivotal in determining the final outcome.
This election will be a crucial test for Mahama, who, after losing the presidency in 2016, failed to reclaim power in the 2020 election. On the other hand, Bawumia aims to “break the eight,” a reference to the NPP’s attempt to extend its stay in power beyond the typical two-term cycle.
One of the most striking findings of the survey was in the parliamentary race.
The report indicated the New Patriotic Party is likely to maintain a majority in Parliament, which could give the ruling party a crucial advantage even if the presidential race remains tightly contested.
Respondents cited several key factors influencing their voting decisions. Economic challenges, infrastructure development, and the leadership qualities of the candidates were highlighted as central themes.
With the survey’s 99.84% response rate, the findings provide a clear picture of the political landscape as fieldwork spanned from 15th August to 15th September 2024.