A poll organized in August 2024 has concluded that Mr Allan Kyerematen will drag the Presidential elections to the second round.
The private sector support message of Mr Kyerematen got the attention of some respondents who said his messages aligned with their needs and aspirations and would have voted for him if the elections were held in August.
The break-way New Patriotic Party big wig will be at the forefront of the smaller parties which aggregate votes combined will gain more than 30 per cent of total votes.
With an error margin around five percent at 95% confidence intervals, the August poll may be necessary not necessary reflect the voting pattern in December but it gives a foretaste of what will be happening on voting day.
This is a strong evidence that come December 7, no single political party will be able to gain the 50 per cent plus one to win the presidency in the general election as per the constitution, the pollsters indicated.
Clearly, this is an indication that the status quo is no longer acceptable, and that voters are seeking effective governance, transparency, and accountability. “As the political campaigns continue to gain momentum, the overall poll findings is full of “shocking” results and it is a strong wake up call for the mainstream NDC and NPP campaign team and policy planners to consider strategy reboot, ”said Osei Boakye (Esq), Consulting Partner of the Chartered Media Consult which carried out the polls.
“The latest result is also sending a strong signal that voters are tired of are demanding a change and holding elected officials accountable for their actions”.
While the April poll (undertaken by the same group) showed clearly that former president John Mahama was in the lead as per figure 1, fast forwarding five months, it is greatly shocking that the strong performance of Mr. Alan Kyerematen, the breakaway presidential hopeful of the NPP is drawing more voters now, that has caused both the NDC and NPP to lose 17.6 and 5.4 points respectively.
Interestingly, the Ashanti region would be the “plateau” for Alan. The region which has about 18.2% of electorate and has historically been a strong hold of the NPP will vote overwhelming for the Movement for Change with about 61% votes come December.
“This is not an outlier poll but a strong validation of sentiments that voters have been expressing in the continuous poll since April,” says Ebenezer Obeng-Nyarkoh, Lead Analyst of Data Insight Group of the JOB Group Limited.
“The NPP will suffer most because the vice president Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has not been able to unify the party and while 15% of NPP supporters will vote for Movement for Change, 3% each will vote for NDC and The New Force.”
Result of the poll from the top six heavily populated regions with about 70% of total voters, shows that NDC will win in Greater Accra and the Volta regions in the elections were held in August.
Interestingly, Movement for Change will maintain a lead in the Ashanti and Central regions. And while the Eastern region will be fiercely contested, NPP will win with landslide victory.
Western will be a crucial battleground region between NDC and Movement for Change.
For the demographics, while the NDC will win the presidential among the voters aged 51 – 60 years, Movement for Change will win with 41% among 18 – 30 years.
Alan’s message on the private sector development appears to be getting on well with particularly voters who are unemployed and poll result shows that 47% of those demographics will be voting for the Movement for Change.
The race will however be very competitive among voters with university degrees.
Although more females voters are considering not participating in the voting during December, NDC will win 45% of female voters while Movement for Change will win the male votes with 40%.
Certainly, party affiliation is a critical factor in voters’ decision and for participants who did not identify party affiliation with any of the four named parties will vote overwhelmingly for NDC with 48% share while NPP will gain only 16%.
The poll also suggests a wide gap in preference for the vice presidency, with the NDC resounding lead of almost 2 to 1 against NPP.
Although, vice presidents will not be on the ballot papers, more females highly prefer running mate, Prof. Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang to Dr. Mathew Opoku Prempeh.
In the midst of the economic struggles, high unemployment rate, and seemingly inadequate government support of the private sector, the message of voters is clear that leaders must perform or face the consequences.
Overall, about 80% of participants completely agree or somewhat agree that the government’s performance, appraising in management of these sectors is low.
“Gven the current pollution levels of most water bodies, it is expected that this time around, environment concern will be prioritized by voters,” says Obeng-Nyarkoh, adding that, “voters are strongly appraising the impact of the level of pollution situation not so much in the moment but rather over the period of both the NDC and NPP parties governance”
The pollsters are an independent and non-governmental group. Their opinions do not reflect the views of the Ghana News Agency.
GNA
